Trump could potentially withdraw support from both Russia and Ukraine

Donald Trump finds himself navigating a precarious situation between two powerful forces. On one side stands Russia, seemingly immovable, and on the other, Ukraine along with its steadfast European allies. Trump had initially promised to resolve the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, later extending that commitment to 100 days. Yet, more than 317 days into his second term, Russias invasion of Ukraine continues unabated.

The US president has oscillated between applying pressure on both Moscow and Kyiv to advance his peace efforts. With envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner returning to Washington without a breakthrough, the administration now faces critical decisions about its next steps. This impending choice has created uncertainty in both European capitals and Moscow as officials await Trump's direction.

Stalled Kremlin Negotiations

Rumors suggested Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky might meet with US peace envoys following their discussions with Vladimir Putin. Instead, Zelensky quietly departed Dublin late Tuesday, returning to Ukraine via Poland. Inside the Kremlin, US representatives spent over five hours negotiating with Putin and his economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, yet no public statement was made by Kushner or Witkoff regarding progress.

Yuri Ushakov, a senior Kremlin adviser, confirmed that no agreements were reached. He noted that the Russian leadership maintained a critical stance on several proposals, indicating that key issues like territorial adjustments and Ukraines potential NATO membership remain unresolved.

Previously, the US and Russia had crafted a 28-point plan, criticized by France as excessively favorable to Moscow. The proposal included reducing Ukraines army, barring NATO membership, transferring frozen Russian assets to Putin, and ceding full control of the Donbas region. In response, US and Ukrainian officials worked on an alternative framework aimed at reconciling Ukraines demands with Russias maximalist stance, yet little common ground emerged.

Pressure and Strategic Options

The White House has historically relied on pressure tactics to influence the conflict. Trump has used leverage on both sides, from threatening Kyiv to restraining Moscow. One approach favored by Europe involves intensifying pressure on Putin to engage constructively, a strategy temporarily effective when Washington threatened to supply long-range missiles to Ukraine and introduced sanctions targeting Russias energy sector.

However, shortly after a phone conversation between the presidents in October, Trump reversed plans to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, seemingly satisfied with Putins willingness to negotiate. As Ukraine and its allies push for renewed pressure on Russia, Trump faces the dilemma of balancing international strategy with domestic priorities, including immigration and tensions with China and Venezuela.

Possible Withdrawal from Peace Efforts

There is growing concern that Trump may withdraw from direct involvement in the peace process, focusing instead on domestic and other international challenges. Following the leak of the 28-point plan, he set a Thanksgiving deadline for Ukraine to accept its terms, threatening to halt intelligence sharing and arms shipments if they did not comply. Past decisions or funding gaps have historically weakened Ukraines military capacity, a scenario European leaders are keen to avoid repeating.

Although Trump has yet to abandon Ukraine entirely, European leaders, particularly NATO figures, are aware that future support will require diplomatic maneuvering and financial commitments. Trumps apparent ambivalence suggests that US backing for Ukraine may become conditional, leaving Europe to bear a larger share of the burden.

For Ukraine, the potential for reduced US engagement raises critical questions about sustaining its defense and negotiating a fair peace, while Europe braces for the strategic and financial implications of a shifting American approach.

Author: Olivia Parker