What does the College Football Playoff picture look like before Selection Sunday?

The 2025 College Football Playoff is shaping up with some familiar patterns but also intriguing twists due to a season full of unpredictable results. After the playoff expanded from four to twelve teams in 2024, this year brings only minor changes, mostly related to seeding.

Previously, the top four conference champions automatically received first-round byes regardless of their final ranking. This year, the top four seeds are awarded strictly based on the final rankings, independent of conference titles. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a place in the playoff.

The committee has also updated its evaluation criteria, giving extra weight to games against strong opponents. Wins over quality teams are rewarded more, while losses to strong opponents are penalized less. However, the main drama stems less from these rules and more from the seasons unexpected results.

The five highest-ranked conference champions automatically qualify, meaning not all Power Four conference champions are guaranteed a spot. While the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC champions are secure, the ACC race remains uncertain due to a down year. Virginia (#17) faces Duke on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET. A Virginia victory secures their playoff place. If Duke wins, the Sun Belt champion James Madison is likely to take the final berth. Duke reached the ACC title game through tiebreakers despite a 7-5 record, while Virginia finished 7-1 in conference play.

Other likely playoff entrants include Tulane, the American Conference champion, who secured their spot with a win over North Texas. James Madison, Sun Belt champion at 12-1, is also positioned to join the field if Duke prevails over Virginia.

Projected College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. Indiana (12-0)
3. Georgia (11-1)
4. Texas Tech (11-1)
5. Oregon (11-1)
6. Ole Miss (11-1)
7. Texas A&M (11-1)
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
9. Alabama (10-2)
10. Notre Dame (10-2)
11. BYU (11-1)
12. Miami (10-2)
13. Texas (9-3)
14. Vanderbilt (10-2)
15. Utah (10-2)
16. USC (9-3)
17. Virginia (10-2)
18. Arizona (9-3)
19. Michigan (9-3)
20. Tulane (11-2)
21. Houston (9-3)
22. Georgia Tech (9-3)
23. Iowa (8-4)
24. North Texas (11-2)
25. James Madison (12-1)

Author: Ava Mitchell