Notre Dame's chances in College Football Playoff are in jeopardy following decline in rankings

Could the College Football Playoff Committee have created a scenario that puts Notre Dames playoff hopes at real risk? After consistently propping up the Fighting Irishs record to appear as a secure 12-team contender if they finished 10-2, the final stretch of the season now introduces genuine uncertainty for one of college footballs most debated teams.

On Tuesday night, during ESPNs penultimate ranking release, the committee moved Alabama to No. 9 while dropping Notre Dame to No. 10. This adjustment carries significant implications: with the ACC and American Conference champions likely finishing outside the top 12, the last at-large spot would go to the team ranked 10thNotre Dames new position.

The situation is further complicated by the Big 12 championship matchup between Texas Tech and BYU. Texas Tech, currently No. 4, is almost assured a playoff spot regardless of the outcome. BYU, sitting at No. 11, could secure an automatic berth with a victory, giving the Big 12 a second representative and potentially eliminating Notre Dame from playoff contention.

However, if Texas Tech wins, as expected given their previous 29-7 victory over BYU, the Cougars ranking would likely drop. Based on this weeks committee approach to two-loss teams, the final evaluation for the last playoff slot might come down to Notre Dame versus Miami.

Historically, the committee has avoided direct head-to-head comparisons when one team is ranked multiple spots above the other. But if the final choice becomes unavoidable, Miamis 27-24 win over Notre Dame in Week 1 could serve as a decisive tiebreaker. The head-to-head is one data point the committee will use, said selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek. Its obviously easier to use when the teams are back-to-back in the rankings rather than separated by several spots.

This setup could create the most contentious debate in CFP history. It also underscores that Notre Dame may have been overvalued for going 10-2 against a schedule lacking high-caliber opponents. While the team boasts impressive talent and has won its last 10 games by nearly 30 points on average, the quality of competition raises questions: victories came against teams like 2-10 Purdue, 2-10 Arkansas, and 3-9 Syracuse, with only a handful of wins against stronger opponents like No. 16 USC, 9-2 Navy, 8-4 Pittsburgh, and 8-4 Boise State.

Despite narrow losses to Miami and Texas A&M early in the season, the lack of signature victories leaves Notre Dames playoff status uncertain. A debate between Notre Dame and Miami could become unavoidable, especially if BYU loses and Texas Tech wins, forcing a comparison between two teams that already faced off in Week 1.

History suggests the committee favors objective results over perceived quality. While Notre Dame fans might argue their team deserves the final spot, past committee decisions indicate Miami could be selected based on their head-to-head victory.

Ultimately, Notre Dames playoff security has diminished. The Big 12 championship outcome will either eliminate the Irish outright or set up a dramatic showdown with Miami for the final berth, producing a suspenseful climax to the season that the committee should have considered long ago.

Author: Sophia Brooks