Expert explains why the US avoided a hurricane for the first time in ten years: 'The key factor…'

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season concluded less than a week ago, standing out for producing the second-highest number of Category 5 storms in a single season. Remarkably, none of these hurricanes made landfall in the United States.

Forecasts for this season proved largely accurate. In early August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its spring predictions, anticipating 13-18 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph. They expected 5-9 to reach hurricane strength, and 2-5 to become major hurricanes. The final season tallies confirmed NOAAs projections: 13 named storms formed, five became hurricanes, and four intensified into major hurricanes.

"The main factor heading into this season was extremely warm ocean temperatures, in some regions record-breaking or near-record levels," said Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at the University of Miamis Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. Warm waters are a critical ingredient for hurricane formation, and these conditions were accurately predicted.

What was unexpected, however, was a weather pattern over the Southeast U.S. that redirected storms away from the coast, pushing them farther out into the Atlantic. Typically, a ridge of high pressure sits over this region during peak hurricane months, steering storms westward or northwestward. This year, the ridge weakened and resembled a trough, which diverted storms from the mainland.

"As storms approached the East Coast, this unusual trough pushed them northward, sparing the U.S. from the brunt of this seasons intense storms," McNoldy explained.

All major hurricanes of 2025 reached Category 5 strength, with Erin, Humberto, and Melissa hitting the top Saffir-Simpson scale tier. The only season with more Category 5 hurricanes was 2005, which included Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest in U.S. history. The National Hurricane Center notes that Category 5 storms can cause severe damage to homes, uproot trees, and lead to extended power outages.

Rising ocean temperatures driven by climate change are amplifying extreme weather events, including hurricanes. Analysis of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season showed that warming oceans increased the wind speeds of all storms that year. Researchers from Climate Central reported that human-caused warming raised wind speeds by 3 to 14 mph, pushing several hurricanes into higher intensity categories.

Author: Noah Whitman