College Football Playoff projection: ACC relies on Virginia defeating Duke for playoff spot

The ACCs unpredictable scenario gained traction this past Saturday. With Cal halting SMUs late rally and Duke defeating Wake Forest, the 7-5 Blue Devils advanced to the ACC title game against Virginia. Oddsmakers list Duke as a narrow three-point underdog and +115 to win outright, meaning an upset wouldnt be shocking.

If Duke wins, it could open the door for James Madison to enter the playoff. The top five conference champions are typically guaranteed a CFP berth, including Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and likely the American. The fifth slot could be influenced by Dukes result. James Madison could reach 12-1 with a Sun Belt title victory over Troy. Their only loss came to Louisville in Week 2, a team that also defeated No. 12 Miami. Leaving a 12-1 team out in favor of an 8-5 ACC team seems unlikely.

Although the ACC is traditionally prestigious, this season has been weak, with Miami missing the conference title game due to the loss to Louisville. While its not certain the ACC will miss the playoff, this scenario has become plausible.

Latest Playoff Projections

1. Ohio State (12-0, projected Big Ten champion)

The Buckeyes dominated Michigan, breaking a six-year losing streak. Returning WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate strengthened the team, while freshman RB Bo Jackson adds a dangerous offensive element. The Big Ten title game promises to be highly competitive.

2. Indiana (12-0, projected Big Ten runner-up)

Indiana finished the regular season undefeated after beating Purdue. QB Fernando Mendoza slightly edges Julian Sayin for the Heisman. Saturdays performance could determine the award, highlighting the significance of the conference finale.

3. Georgia (11-1, projected SEC champion)

Georgia faces Alabama in the SEC championship and may secure a No. 2 seed if victorious. The Bulldogs are slight favorites, despite losing to Alabama earlier. Their defense recently stifled Georgia Tech, who closed the season on a two-game losing streak.

4. Texas Tech (11-1, projected Big 12 champion)

Texas Tech clinched the Big 12 title game spot by defeating West Virginia decisively. DE David Bailey, though slightly injured, is expected to play. The Red Raiders previously overpowered BYU and will enjoy a quasi-home advantage in Dallas.

5. Oregon (11-1, at-large)

Oregon could claim a first-round bye if Alabama loses to Georgia. The Ducks recently limited Washingtons QB Demond Williams Jr. to 129 passing yards in Week 14. Their performance remains strong despite coaching transitions.

6. Texas A&M (11-1, at-large)

Virginia, projected ACC champion, is favored, but a loss to Duke could allow James Madison to enter. Virginia recently defeated Virginia Tech, achieving 10 wins for the first time since 1989. Texas A&M now hosts a first-round game after losing to Texas.

7. Ole Miss (11-1, at-large)

Alabama may take the final at-large spot, but Ole Misss status could shift following Lane Kiffins departure. The committee is likely to finalize adjustments this week rather than wait until the final rankings.

8. Notre Dame (10-2, at-large)

Notre Dames convincing 49-20 victory over Stanford underscores their playoff worthiness. Despite past debates, their record justifies their current ranking ahead of teams like Miami.

9. Oklahoma (10-2, at-large)

Oklahoma survived LSU thanks to two key second-half plays. They are a playoff-capable team but unlikely title contenders, creating a potential swap with Notre Dame in rankings depending on final committee decisions.

10. Alabama (10-2, at-large)

Alabamas final at-large position is contingent on the SEC championship outcome. Even with a loss to a top-three team like Georgia, the Crimson Tide could maintain a playoff berth, with a win securing at least a first-round hosting.

Author: Sophia Brooks