CFP Projections: The 12 Teams Expected to Advance Before Championship Weekend

Thanksgiving has passed, and the 2025 college football regular season has officially concluded. With only the conference championship games remaining this week, attention turns to finalizing the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.

Heres a projection of which programs are expected to make the CFP and which will be heading to standard bowl games. Teams in bold are predicted to receive first-round byes into the quarterfinals, while an asterisk (*) marks the highest-ranked conference champions.

Teams Locked In

Ohio State, Georgia, Indiana, Texas Tech, Oregon, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame are all considered safe entries into the 12-team bracket regardless of championship weekend outcomes.

Both Ohio State and Indiana are undefeated at 12-0, and their Big Ten Championship clash will effectively decide the No. 1 seed. The losing team is still likely to earn a first-round bye, alongside one-loss SEC champ Georgia and one-loss Big 12 champ Texas Tech.

First-Round Hosts

Oregon and Texas A&M, each with one loss and falling short in their conference games, are projected to host first-round matchups. They could move into the top four if Georgia or Texas Tech suffer upsets, but for now they sit at No. 5 and No. 6.

Oklahoma and Notre Dame, the top two-loss teams, are predicted to face each other in a first-round game in Norman. Ole Miss is also expected to be included despite head coach Lane Kiffins departure for LSU, following precedent where injured teams were evaluated differently in past CFP decisions.

Conference Champions and the Group of Five Spot

The ACC Championship features Virginia against a five-loss Duke. A Duke win could endanger the conferences representation, so this projection favors a Virginia victory, making them the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.

The final guaranteed spot, the Group of Five bid, is expected to be determined in the American Championship Game between North Texas and Tulane. Despite coaching changes for both teams, North Texas offense is projected to prevail, earning a first-round matchup against Oregon.

Other At-Large Teams

Miami, finishing 10-2 and missing the ACC title game, is projected to be included after Notre Dame is ranked higher despite Miami holding the head-to-head advantage. Alabama, with three losses including an early defeat to Florida State, is unlikely to make the field. BYU, ranked No. 11 last week, would need a win over Texas Tech to secure a spot; otherwise, Miami likely takes the final at-large bid.

Other notable teams expected to miss out include Utah, Vanderbilt, Texas, and USC. James Madison, 11-1 and playing Troy in the Sun Belt Championship, will only reach the CFP if the American champion bid allows for a second G5 team, dependent on a Virginia loss to Duke.

Author: Sophia Brooks