Alabama's worst-case scenario: From conference championship game to being left out of the College Football Playoff

This Saturday, Alabama will take the field for the SEC championship, but their challenge extends beyond just the University of Georgia. The College Football Playoff (CFP) committee is also a looming factor, with Alabama currently ranked No. 10. The stakes are clear: a loss could mean missing the playoff entirely.

Alabamas 2025 season has been turbulent, including heavy defeats against Florida State and Oklahoma. These setbacks have made the Tides path to the CFP more precarious. The situation raises a broader question: if a team can reach a conference title game but still miss the playoff, what purpose do these championships servebeyond the revenue they generate?

After Alabamas victory over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, coach Kalen DeBoer expressed confidence in the teams playoff qualifications, highlighting their 10-2 record and 7-1 SEC mark. He emphasized that Alabamas performance should be enough to earn a CFP spot.

In theory, DeBoers argument holds weight. Alabama enters the SEC championship as the No. 1 seed in arguably the toughest conference in college football. Yet the CFP committee appears to prioritize losses over wins, meaning Alabamas previous defeats already count heavily against them. Another loss in the championship could potentially exclude them from the playoff, despite facing a top-ranked opponent.

The numbers illustrate the dilemma. Alabamas record mirrors teams like Oklahoma and Notre Dame, but head-to-head results and quality of losses affect the committees decisions. Meanwhile, teams like Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss sit ahead of Alabama in the rankings, despite Alabama securing the SECs top seed through tiebreakers.

The SEC title game represents a high-risk, high-reward scenario. A victory could secure a first-round bye in the CFP, while a loss might relegate Alabama to a lesser bowl. Margins are thin: a narrow defeat to Georgia might be survivable, but a lopsided loss could give the committee reason to exclude the Tide, citing earlier season defeats.

The debate over conference championships extends beyond Alabama. BYU could miss the playoffs despite a strong record and a Big 12 championship loss, while Duke is unlikely to qualify even with an ACC title appearance. The trend shows that finishing second in a Power 4 conference no longer guarantees playoff inclusion, raising questions about the relevance of these games.

For Alabama, the solution remains straightforward: win the SEC championship, and their playoff fate becomes much clearer. If Nick Saban were still at the helm, he would likely make a public case for inclusion while privately emphasizing that on-field results determine everything. The Tides destiny will be decided on Saturday, either by their own performance or the judgment of the CFP committee.

Author: Sophia Brooks